Question Investing & Investments during crisis

[ikeo1]

PLTR is one of the reasons I was able to work on this project and take some time off work. Anything connected to Elon is a $ printer.

Ethereum is printing right now. A lot of people don't see the devaluing of the dollar happening. I've been preparing for it and doubling down now. It's the only way we're going to be competitive globally. Gotta be in some sort of assets these days

 

[millenialshooter83]

Ethereum was a good play for my partner back then. She used the profits to help put a down payment for her parents house in the Philippines.

I hold only Bitcoin, but Ethereum looks ready to make ATH

 

[H. Bowman]

Considering how things are looking currently for futures, I hope everyone else also dumped a bunch of cash into the market Friday afternoon. (Now that I opened my mouth, watch it dump before open)

 

[ikeo1]

Considering how things are looking currently for futures, I hope everyone else also dumped a bunch of cash into the market Friday afternoon. (Now that I opened my mouth, watch it dump before open)

Yeah I’ve been reallocating quite a bit after each of these run ups. Now moving some into rare earths NB

 

[millenialshooter83]

Gold and silver futures are at another ATH

 

[ikeo1]

Gold and silver futures are at another ATH

Yeah and crypto has recovered a bit from the bloodbath now with less leverage. Rare earths and AI are booming.

I just dropped a big chunk of change exiting ORCL and into SLV. All these datacenters and chips coming up are going to require a lot of copper and raw materials.

 

[ikeo1]

I hold only Bitcoin, but Ethereum looks ready to make ATH

I'm still waiting for this, I bought a nice bag when it dropped to $3600

 

[millenialshooter83]

I am currently traveling through Europe (specifically Paris, Zurich, and Munich) and I am spending more $ on my vacation because of how bad the exchange rate is with the USD. Basically I am paying 16-20% more here than in the US.

I have coworkers who are just saving their cash and working more OT because they have no idea how to invest or allocate their money anywhere else

 

[star.3d]

All these datacenters and chips coming up are going to require a lot of copper and raw materials

Have you looked at full stack infrastructure companies like Nebius (NBIS)? It's up 100% since last month, but put/call is still around 0.2. I'm expecting copper contracts to continue to go sideways (or fluctuate with trade uncertainty) and rare earths are... not rare - it's a misnomer. There's no domestic refining capacity - it's not really about mining.

 

[ikeo1]

Have you looked at full stack infrastructure companies like Nebius (NBIS)? It's up 100% since last month, but put/call is still around 0.2. I'm expecting copper contracts to continue to go sideways (or fluctuate with trade uncertainty) and rare earths are... not rare - it's a misnomer. There's no domestic refining capacity - it's not really about mining.

True, A question is if we can start to ramp up refining capacity. We have a lot of natural resources, but environmentally we'll ultimately start to suffer.

What else are you looking at?

 

[star.3d]

I'm just... skeptical about rare earths. There was similar excitement in the early 2000's and I'm not sure it ever really came to fruition. Molycorp went bankrupt and MP bought and sold several mines. I bought some copper contracts after the TACO in July and have traded them a bit since, but it's back to looking shaky.

Utilities have been strong (energy less so) - NextEra, Constellation, Duke.

Not sure where the big defense contractors are headed, but General Dynamics and Huntington-Ingalls (HII) look okay - I kinda don't expect shipbuilding to pick up, despite Trump talking about it. If you're greedy, you could look at Kratos (KTOS) - may continue down this week, but put/call also looks okay despite P/E of 953. Options contracts are even more bullish on Blacksky (BKSY).

 

[hamburglar]

Also a boglehead. 70% VTI, 30% VXUS, no bonds yet cause young. Just buy some more once a month as an automated transaction and never look at it except to rebalance once in a while.

 

[ptmn2]

I'm not a financial advisor and I never played one on TV. With that disclaimer set, this is not financial advice, it's just what I do.

Investing in an economic downturn for lay people like myself is the same as in a strong market. Find high quality, low fee mutual funds that track a well regarded index like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW, etc. and continue to dollar cost average. It's hard to keep putting in the same amount every time when my account value has dropped 40%, but I stay the course. Historically markets do very well in the periods following a recession, so by DCA, I bought shares at a 40% discount and I ride the highs that normally follow.

That strategy may not work if you are retired or near retirement and even if you are not, historical performance does not guarantee the same, it's just an indicator that has played out many times in the past.

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

Rental properties. Ever see rents go down? I didn’t think so. Great inflation hedge too.

I would rather boil my balls in oil than be a landlord in California.

 

[compulsivegungrabber]

I’m out of the market and have a ridiculous amount of money auto rolling in 4 week T-bills because I’m paralyzed with fear and feel like the economic out of bounds lines of what’s considered mainstream economic theory and practice just keep getting pushed out further and further. Not sure how the full faith and credit of the United States is going to hold up. I have 20 oz of physical gold I have had for at least 25 years. Still got another 10 years before I went to retire.

 

[H. Bowman]

T bills are not all that great anymore. Have you paid attention to the rates? I keep my emergency fund in them for liquidity, but they're not good investments.

 

[star.3d]

I’m out of the market and have a ridiculous amount of money auto rolling in 4 week T-bills because I’m paralyzed with fear and feel like the economic out of bounds lines of what’s considered mainstream economic theory and practice just keep getting pushed out further and further.

I think this feeling is valid. But, emotion isn't an investing strategy. I think 0-3mo T-bills or T-bill ETF's are a reasonable place to park cash for wealth preservation (at the moment). Short term treasuries have never been a growth investment.

There's a concept called the "wall of worry", which basically says that a fearful market continues to climb a wall of uncertainty because the pessimism is already priced in. In contrast, a market that is 'euphoric' tends to fly too high too fast and is liable to crash (2008). So, oddly, the times that we feel fearful are sometimes good opportunities - the decision to be in/out of equities is key right now, and maybe a mixed strategy is warranted? Even shifting some money to TIPS bonds or corporate bond ETFs (e.g. FLOT) at a slightly higher yield could keep your real yield positive.

It's often said that the price of gold anticipates the effects of monetary policy - right now, it's anticipating instability and inflation of the dollar (money printing). So it's very possible equities will continue to rise (some sectors more than others) because of said QE policies.

Past 12mos of gold contracts in blue, S&P500 in black - even with zero GDP growth, equities may rise due to quantitative easing, some sectors more than others.

 

[couragewolf]

n contrast, a market that is 'euphoric' tends to fly too high too fast and is liable to crash (2008). So, oddly, the times that we feel fearful are sometimes good opportunities - the decision to be in/out of equities is key right now, and maybe a mixed strategy is warranted? Even shifting some money to TIPS bonds or corporate bond ETFs (e.g. FLOT) at a slightly higher yield could keep your real yield positive.

It's often said that the price of gold anticipates the effects of monetary policy - right now, it's anticipating instability a

I think there's a very real consideration you have to make regarding the TYPE of financial instability that's coming.

Prior historical instability has been consistently market fluctuations as the market claws back towards rational PE/Value basis on stocks during failures that resulted from overeager lending/credit etc.

What we're dealing with now is a government so saddled with debt it's now struggling to pay it's services without significant horizon timeline austerity measures, and simultaneously a stagflating or deflationary signal from consumer credit.

So, people can't afford largely beyond the essentials statistically. However, the government can't print the liquidity problems away like it has in the past without significant consumer pressure by jacking up the cost of everything.

I'd say historically what you observe in these scenarios is dramatic societal changes in the currency holders view.

Treausuries don't feel like a great escape hatch when you know the government is going to take after their value with a reflation chainsaw.

 

[star.3d]

austerity measures

the government can't print the liquidity problems away like it has in the past without significant consumer pressure by jacking up the cost of everything.

My lay opinion/expectation is that money printing is almost always more favorable and more effective than austerity because discretionary spending is a pretty small portion of the federal budget. They need to inflate the value of the dollar by about 15-20% over the next few years and force real yields negative for some bond holders (if they can't, yield curve control is next). There isn't a 1-to-1 correlation between money printing (increasing M2 money supply) and inflation - so yes, it'll be painful/turbulent for consumers and businesses, but it is certainly precedented. "Massive growth" isn't actually going to happen - but the apparent rise in the stock market will be sold as growth (by Trump et al), despite being inflation-driven. Anyway... that's my crystal ball at the moment.

 

[couragewolf]

My lay opinion/expectation is that money printing is almost always more favorable and more effective than austerity because discretionary spending is a pretty small portion of the federal budget. They need to inflate the value of the dollar by about 15-20% over the next few years and force real yields negative for some bond holders (if they can't, yield curve control is next). There isn't a 1-to-1 correlation between money printing (increasing M2 money supply) and inflation - so yes, it'll be painful/turbulent for consumers and businesses, but it is certainly precedented. "Massive growth" isn't actually going to happen - but the apparent rise in the stock market will be sold as growth (by Trump et al), despite being inflation-driven. Anyway... that's my crystal ball at the moment.

Your lay opinion is a highly informed one. The problem I think I'm not seeing described in it is that the government's spending cycle will continue to grow regardless.

The printing is now a forced function on a flywheel. The austerity is not the popular choice, but what I'm saying is that the printing costs will become so severe for holders of the currency that the only way to show relief will be more printing which then feeds back into the flywheel of higher costs.

Sisyphus will never reach the top effectively.