DUNCAN V. BONTA GOES TO SCOTUS CONFERENCE - California Large Capacity Magazine Prohibition

[BARvS]

Man, I love getting blue balled by the SCOTUS.

 

[shroom]

 

[nakatomi]

He argues that taking an AR-15 case first and getting a win there sets a better precedent for the mags and suppressor cases.

Yup at this point the interesting question isn’t grant vs deny. It’s what they’re waiting for.

 

[Gawernator]

They may deny it, they are probably waiting to see how other cases play out or not getting the fourth vote

 

[BARvS]

They may deny it, they are probably waiting to see how other cases play out or not getting the fourth vote

Maybe they'll take the Washington case over it?

 

[treelogger]

It’s what they’re waiting for.

There are two gun rights cases the court heard this year, and hasn't ruled on yet. The sensible guess it that they will GVR after those two cases, to be re-decided in light of those decisions.

 

[Mp5Marley]

Hope is not a strategy

 

[Dvrjon]

There are two gun rights cases the court heard this year, and hasn't ruled on yet. The sensible guess it that they will GVR after those two cases, to be re-decided in light of those decisions.

We’ve discussed this at length in the past, and GVR could happen. However, looking back on the proceedings for the two cases, it’s hard to see a decision in either which would apply to the grounds of Duncan.

At this point, I’m leaning toward carry-over for next session.

 

[Dvrjon]

Maybe they'll take the Washington case over it?

If you’re referring to Gator’s, it is not well developed and came up through the state court, not the federal. More importantly, while it, like Duncan, hinges on the definition of “arm”, the statute in Gator’s contains a grandfather clause allowing individuals to retain their mags. The Duncan statute doesn’t, and Duncan is fully developed through two full trips up the appellate ladder. So a decision in Gator to support the statute will be in friction with approval of the law under Duncan. Essentially all LCMs would be banned, but Washingtonians could keep theirs while Californians would be disposed. That would constitute unequal enforcement between states.

That won’t work.

 

[grandpapeepap]

If you’re referring to Gator’s, it is not well developed and came up through the state court, not the federal. More importantly, while it, like Duncan, hinges on the definition of “arm”, the statute in Gator’s contains a grandfather clause allowing individuals to retain their mags. The Duncan statute doesn’t, and Duncan is fully developed through two full trips up the appellate ladder. So a decision in Gator to support the statute will be in friction with approval of the law under Duncan. Essentially all LCMs would be banned, but Washingtonians could keep theirs while Californians would be disposed. That would constitute unequal enforcement between states.

That won’t work.

as always, i appreciate the knowledge and updates Dvrjon

 

[Dvrjon]

as always, i appreciate the knowledge and updates Dvrjon

Thanks, but the caveat there is I really try for sane, balanced and logical analysis. I also am not one of the Supreme Nine, in part because of that.

 

[Dvrjon]

Maybe they'll take the Washington case over it?

For background, here’s a link to a March discussion. Please see: https://caguns.net/threads/duncan-v...agazine-prohibition.26642/page-40#post-134045

(Apologies for linking to my post, but read around it for others’ excellent opinions to gain context).

 

[treelogger]

At this point, I’m leaning toward carry-over for next session.

You might very well be right. I would not bet a whole six-pack against that, but perhaps one bottle.

 

[BARvS]

If you’re referring to Gator’s, it is not well developed and came up through the state court, not the federal. More importantly, while it, like Duncan, hinges on the definition of “arm”, the statute in Gator’s contains a grandfather clause allowing individuals to retain their mags. The Duncan statute doesn’t, and Duncan is fully developed through two full trips up the appellate ladder. So a decision in Gator to support the statute will be in friction with approval of the law under Duncan. Essentially all LCMs would be banned, but Washingtonians could keep theirs while Californians would be disposed. That would constitute unequal enforcement between states.

That won’t work.

Thanks for clearing that up!

What do you predict will happen with Duncan, short, mid, and long term? You think we'll still be dealing with it years from now?

 

[tenemae]

We’ve discussed this at length in the past, and GVR could happen. However, looking back on the proceedings for the two cases, it’s hard to see a decision in either which would apply to the grounds of Duncan.

I would love to see a world in which Duncan is heard before Alito and Thomas, but I'm a bit pessimistic. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there is anything requiring SCOTUS to grant cert for the current term. They could simply grant Duncan and assign it to next term, no? If so, the number of relists don't make sense.
I also disagree that neither pending case is appropriate for providing the lower court with more guidance. Wolford seems like it is directly addressing 9CA's refusal to follow Bruen's guidance. While hardware bans are admittedly different than carry laws, both Wolford and Duncan failed to properly apply the text-history/tradition rule Bruen mapped out. Taking a second bite at the apple and handing down tightened guidance seems logical (though painful).

You think we'll still be dealing with it years from now?

In my opinion, yes. I think it'll go for another run down and back up. 3-4 years I'm guessing, but I'd love to be wrong. Ca and CA9 won't roll over on this, so I think it's up to the conservatives on the supreme court

 

[Dvrjon]

1 Jun: Orders don’t appear to include Duncan.

 

[BARvS]

 

[grandpapeepap]

 

[shroom]

What's the record for most relists before a denial of cert? Is it Snope?

 

[Dvrjon]

What's the record for most relists before a denial of cert? Is it Snope?

Nope… https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-203.html Denied after 16 distributions.
Duncan is now at 19. Without checking, I suspect Gator’s is also there.