Heads Up, Revival of SB 948.

[Gawernator]

I’m upset that you watched Copper Jacket more than the bill.

why is this guy so hated

 

[grandpapeepap]

why is this guy so hated

weaver made a post on page 1 that could help illuminate the issue some people have

 

[exnds]

why is this guy so hated

Because he’s a zero-value added clickbait farmer. Like lots of 2A Tubers, TBH. But CJ and Armed Scholar take things to an extreme with the overtly dramatic and misleading titles. That’s why these two in particular get the lion’s share of the hate.

 

[Gawernator]

roger

 

[shroom]

What county?

marin

 

[shroom]

Copper jacket is hated because he makes clickbait videos just long enough to shove a 60s gold&silver ad into.

>literally nothing happens in some court case
>copper jacket: BREAKING NEWS IN XYZ V. BONTA BUT BEFORE WE GET INTO IT BUY GOLD THROUGH THIS BROKER

 

[1911-CV]

It appears they were ultimately successful in reducing prison populations, and with no apparent increase in crime rates:

View attachment 195245

View attachment 195246

A bit late to the party, but researchers as diverse as the Public Policy Institute and UC Berkley saw no increase in violent crime, but did see increases in property crime as a result of reducing California's prison population.


PPIC Study #1
PPIC Study #2
UC Berkley Study

Graph from UC Berkley Study

 

[weaverftw]

There isn't a single shooting range inside my county.

I would recommend moving for reasons other than FSC

 

[weaverftw]

marin

Ah ok I revoke my previous comment, there are valid reasons to live in Marin. If you can afford to live there, you can afford to drive to a range nearby to take a class. Not that I agree with this absurd requirement, but just sayin

 

[Deleted member 16735]

A bit late to the party, but researchers as diverse as the Public Policy Institute and UC Berkley saw no increase in violent crime, but did see increases in property crime as a result of reducing California's prison population.


PPIC Study #1
PPIC Study #2
UC Berkley Study

Graph from UC Berkley Study
View attachment 195757

Appreciate the citations, the graphs I had posted were also from PPIC they were just longer term to include the present year. I'm certainly not someone who thinks that we should free all prisoners and not care about crime, it's more that there is an odd narrative about "soft on crime" leading to more crime. In this case the prisoners were released due to being forced by courts and not as a bleeding heart narrative. I do think the data you have posted is relevant and should be considered, a big question I have on the topic is what is the most effective avenue for lowering crime. The biggest reason the prisons were overfull is funding, it's insanely expensive to house criminals, we spend around 20 billion per year. So do other avenues with outside rehabilitation lead to less recidivism, better outcomes and less overall cost? it remains to be seen but I would at least like to see it tried even if it ultimately fails because we will at least have data to tell us what works. Because I think it's obvious that prison barely works, it works to keep someone off the streets for a period of time but they often come out worse rather than rehabilitated and ready to engage with society in a positive way.

 

[Deleted member 16735]

I largely agree with your post but also I think there is a different dynamic in the crime data that leads to the error in thinking. Generally we are safer, but there are some specific places that have seen a big increase in petty crime like theft and those places have very wealthy and influential people, like SF and LA (if you consider that civilization), and those people have loud voices. That skews things in people’s minds as they’re symbolic places.

For sure but I still think a lot of that is overstated and there is a greater context, like growing up in the bay with family in SF and then living in SF in the 90s and early 2000s and Oakland later, when you compare 20-30 years ago to today it really is so much safer today. All these places have been gentrified and the demographics changed drastically, I paid 600 for my half of an SF apartment 25 years ago that I'm sure rents for 5k today. So at the same time as neighborhoods are "cleaned up" there is increased pressure on the regular folks and their kids that don't have the tech jobs. So the big visible difference today is more people living on the street where 25 years ago they were in a cheap apartment that no longer exists. I had some wild neighbors, on the corner every day selling crack and you look in their apartment when you are walking by and it's just a bare mattress no furniture, nothing. But that was still better then living on the street. But to me I see the stronger forces at work being the Bay Area inflation that's really just due to it's "success" via the tech industry. That kind of financial transition is a double edged sword. As the tech layoffs continue and the boomers sell their houses to pay for end of life care, I'm very interested to see how the Bay transitions and hope that it becomes a place that regular people can live again.

 

[1911-CV]

Broad-brush legislative fixes are unlikely to provide the best outcomes. Locking everyone up forever for small crimes drives up incarceration cost and takes all those folks out of the labor force. Letting all petty criminals out and de-criminalizing small offenses allows those out to make crime their 'job' an easy path to disrupt society. It is almost impossible for legislation to distinguish between the 'done once, learned my lesson' people and those who will break a car window and steal $599.99 every day of the year if $600 is the boundary for a serious penalty.

 

[shroom]

Ah ok I revoke my previous comment, there are valid reasons to live in Marin. If you can afford to live there, you can afford to drive to a range nearby to take a class. Not that I agree with this absurd requirement, but just sayin

bruh what? Do you know how diverse Marin is in terms of incomes... you have 5 million dollar homes on a hill in downtown San Rafael. 5 min driving distance away you have high density apartments by the canals where I've seen prostitutes walk around. Wild statement to make "you live in a rich county you can afford it".

 

[Deleted member 16735]

Broad-brush legislative fixes are unlikely to provide the best outcomes. Locking everyone up forever for small crimes drives up incarceration cost and takes all those folks out of the labor force. Letting all petty criminals out and de-criminalizing small offenses allows those out to make crime their 'job' an easy path to disrupt society. It is almost impossible for legislation to distinguish between the 'done once, learned my lesson' people and those who will break a car window and steal $599.99 every day of the year if $600 is the boundary for a serious penalty.

There is a pathway to charge petty theft as a felony for repeated offenses through PC 666, before 2012 this could have lead to a life sentence through "three strikes" but prop 36 narrowed the three strikes penalty to violent offenses. The small offenses were never decriminalized as petty theft is still a misdemeanor so even after the 2010 bill that raised the limit from 400 to 950 you can still get jail time and with repeat offenses a felony. Fun fact: the felony theft limit in Texas is 2500 vs 950 here. Ca has one of the lowest thresholds at 950 in the United States.

 

[1911-CV]

50 felonies, no jail time: Snake Bandit

Glendora PD arrest man 3 times in one day 3 Arrests

There may have been 'a pathway' but it was overgrown with weeds from neglect and non-use. Prop 36 seems to be a step in the right direction, but it needs funding which our governor seems determined not to provide.

 

[Deleted member 16735]

50 felonies, no jail time: Snake Bandit

Glendora PD arrest man 3 times in one day 3 Arrests

There may have been 'a pathway' but it was overgrown with weeds from neglect and non-use. Prop 36 seems to be a step in the right direction, but it needs funding which our governor seems determined not to provide.

The "Snake Bandit" one is a little weird because the DA that prosecuted him put out this statement blaming state laws for releasing him, yet his sentencing was based on a plea deal with that DA. The statement by the DA cites prop 47 which reduces some non violent felonies to misdemeanors but felony burglary is not on that list. So what is the real story here? He did actually get jail time, he just had already served it waiting for trial so was let out for "time served". The real proof is in the pudding though, if this guy reengages with his criminal activity even though he's wearing an ankle monitor for the next 12 years and has 150k in restitution, we know that the process was ineffective. But the issue is still very complex because lets say he gets 10 years in prison. That's 81k per year that the public is paying to feed and house him, going by the 150k in restitution being the value of what was stolen his sentencing would be 5 times that amount that the public would pay. I don't know what the real answer is but the past few years has seen the Democrat legislature pass a ton of stuff to increase sentencing on smash and grabs and similar crimes. Remember that prop 47 was a voter referendum and can only be repealed by another voter referendum which is why prop 36 happened instead of the legislature repealing it.

'Snake' burglar pleads guilty to stealing from 54 businesses | Riverside County District Attorney

RIVERSIDE -- The man dubbed the ‘snake burglar’ for his attempts to slide along the ground to avoid detection while breaking into businesses, entered guilty pleas to 54 counts of felony burglary today. Christopher MichaelPaul Jackson, DOB: 7-31-90, was immediately sentenced to seven months in...

rivcoda.org

 

[1911-CV]

The "Snake Bandit" one is a little weird because the DA that prosecuted him put out this statement blaming state laws for releasing him, yet his sentencing was based on a plea deal with that DA. The statement by the DA cites prop 47 which reduces some non violent felonies to misdemeanors but felony burglary is not on that list. So what is the real story here? He did actually get jail time, he just had already served it waiting for trial so was let out for "time served". The real proof is in the pudding though, if this guy reengages with his criminal activity even though he's wearing an ankle monitor for the next 12 years and has 150k in restitution, we know that the process was ineffective. But the issue is still very complex because lets say he gets 10 years in prison. That's 81k per year that the public is paying to feed and house him, going by the 150k in restitution being the value of what was stolen his sentencing would be 5 times that amount that the public would pay. I don't know what the real answer is but the past few years has seen the Democrat legislature pass a ton of stuff to increase sentencing on smash and grabs and similar crimes. Remember that prop 47 was a voter referendum and can only be repealed by another voter referendum which is why prop 36 happened instead of the legislature repealing it.

'Snake' burglar pleads guilty to stealing from 54 businesses | Riverside County District Attorney

RIVERSIDE -- The man dubbed the ‘snake burglar’ for his attempts to slide along the ground to avoid detection while breaking into businesses, entered guilty pleas to 54 counts of felony burglary today. Christopher MichaelPaul Jackson, DOB: 7-31-90, was immediately sentenced to seven months in...

rivcoda.org

The other half of Prop 47 was AB109 which moved people from state prison to county jails, worsening overcrowding in local facilities and extensive 'book and release' programs. Saved the state a ton of money at the expense of local jurisdictions and the public.

There were regular press articles on the 'snake bandit' once the number of break-ins crept up. He always broke in after hours to avoid being classified as 'violent' or 'threatening to people'. The system immediately let him out as he had figured out how not to represent a 'threat'. EVENTUALLY some DA took action and kept him locked up until trial, but there was minimal time served. Who puts a price on the damage he caused? There was $150k in provable damage by shop owners who took the extra time to document impact for money they would never see again. Then there are the impacts on folks who strengthened their security after they saw 'the system' wasn't going to protect them; the sleepless nights of business owners who had been robbed; the other folks who learned from his exploits?

There is no perfect system and the legislature tends to lurch from extreme (lock 'em up for life) to extreme (let 'em out). Recent moves in response to public outcry seem to be swinging pendulum back to more incarceration...

 

[grandpapeepap]

If there was that much provable damage isnt that when insurance kicks in to cover it

 

[1911-CV]

If there was that much provable damage isn't that when insurance kicks in to cover it

30+ businesses deductible on each....

 

[grandpapeepap]

30+ businesses deductible on each....

yeah thats part of insurance and he has to pay restitution right? (assuming he gets a job that can be with held money on). DAs are elected in our state so im not sure what else can be said, besides voting for other people but they are bound by state law and such too /shrug